Care Homes in London Near Capacity as UK Care Sector Edges Towards Crisis

London lost nearly 2,000 care home beds between 2017 and 2025, marking one of the sharpest declines in care homes in London and the second largest drop in the UK.

Knight Frank’s Healthcare Development Opportunities report reveals that across the UK, there are about 28.5 care beds for every 100 people aged over 85. In London, that figure is closer to 20 beds per 100 people, highlighting growing pressure on care homes in the capital.

Only a handful of regions saw significant growth in care home bed numbers. The West Midlands recorded the largest increase with around 1,600 additional beds, followed by the North West with roughly 900, and the East Midlands and East of England with gains of around 700 and 600 beds respectively.

The total UK bed supply across care homes grew by only 2.4% over the past decade, while the over-65 population has increased by about 16.2% over the same period.

The report warns that the social care sector is approaching a critical “care cliff” and could reach capacity before the end of the decade. Over the longer term, the shortfall across UK care homes could grow to roughly 200,000 beds by 2050.

Capacity pressures are most acute among the oldest age groups. People aged 85 and over account for just 13 per cent of the over-65 population but occupy around 51 per cent of care home beds.

Ageing buildings and closures

Another challenge is the condition of existing care homes.

Across the UK, 79 percent of care homes are more than 20 years old and around 30 percent of beds lack en suite bathrooms. Many homes also do not have modern wet room facilities, which are widely considered essential for infection control and resident dignity.

Although developers continue to build new purpose-built care homes, closures of smaller or outdated homes are offsetting much of the growth in supply.

Today, the UK operates approximately 480,800 care beds across 11,143 care homes.

Home care key to solving the shortage

Pete Dowds, Founder and CEO of Elder, said the report highlights the urgent need to expand access to high-quality home care.

“Britain’s population is ageing rapidly, and the pressure this places on residential care homes is only going to intensify over the next decade,” he said.

“If we want to prevent the social care system from becoming overwhelmed, home care must become a core part of the solution. Not only is home care the fastest and most scalable way to support an ageing population, but it’s where most older people want to remain.

“Expanding access to home care or live-in care will require closer partnerships between the NHS, local authorities and providers. This will help reduce pressure on care homes in London and hospitals.”